Israel and the Iranian Axis

Since the surprise attack on October 7th, IDF soldiers and the Israeli intelligence community have demonstrated tremendous courage and resourcefulness in their war against the Iranian axis. The pagers attack against Hezbollah commanders in September 2024 and the severe damage we dealt to the Iranian axis throughout the past year have led to an unprecedented situation - Iran finds itself in the most severe distress since the establishment of the Ayatollah regime. These military achievements marked a strategic turning point in Israel's approach. We refuse to continue containing the terrorist threats around us. We are acting to eliminate them in advance.

However, these successes conceal a more complex reality. Instead of bringing regional stability, we now face one of four dangerous scenarios: First, the rebuilding of Iran's missile arsenal increases the likelihood of a second round of war between Israel and Iran. This scenario is expected to include additional strikes on the Israeli home front. Second, the expansion of demonstrations in Iran indicates a real danger of an outbreak of an internal Iranian civil war that will deteriorate into a broad regional struggle. Third, there is also a possibility that combines the scenarios. The collapse of the Ayatollah regime, regional anarchy, and a second round of war between Israel and Iran all at once. Fourth, a balance of terror. The existing situation becomes entrenched through a political agreement or military balance of terror. In this scenario, terrorist organizations funded by Iran continue to attack us and ignite wars.

These four scenarios carry many dangers. As Israelis, we have an obligation to defend ourselves. However, precisely because of this, we must ask ourselves - where do we want to navigate? What is our regional strategy? How will we ensure the future of our children and grandchildren in the coming decades?

Student demonstration in Iran, September 20, 2022. Photo: Darafsh

Regional Extremism

Should the Ayatollah regime fall, it would mark a tremendously positive milestone for Israel and the peoples of the region. This murderous regime is directly responsible for the deaths of thousands of Israelis throughout its years of existence and for undermining stability in the Middle East. We must hope for its collapse.

But alongside this, we must admit that the fall of the Iranian regime is not expected to lead to a worthy future for Israel's children. Already now we are witnessing the strengthening of an extremist Sunni axis in the Gaza Strip and Syria. This axis includes a variety of terrorist organizations such as Hamas, ISIS, groups within Ahmad al-Sharaa's regime in Syria, and additional organizations. The October 7th attack and the terrible massacre that occurred to the Druze in Syria are clear evidence of the dangers inherent in this axis.

But despite this, unlike the Iranian Ayatollah regime, the extremist Sunni axis enjoys international protective cover. Countries such as Turkey and Qatar provide these organizations with indirect support while simultaneously enjoying a strengthening alliance with the US. For example, President Trump declared that he might sell F-35 aircraft to Turkey, and Qatar has upgraded its defense relations with the US. One of the consequences of this strengthening relationship is the limitation of the IDF's freedom of action in the Gaza Strip.

Simultaneously, the moderate Sunni states are weakening. Normalization with Saudi Arabia is more distant than ever due to our opposition to a Palestinian state, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are confronting each other through their proxies in Yemen. As long as the only scenarios are anarchy or rounds of wars, the international community will prefer short-term stability at the expense of Israel's long-term interests. If we do not advance normalization agreements with the moderate Sunni states, the world will continue to strengthen the extremist groups willing to guarantee immediate stability.

Therefore, framing the October 7th war as total victory would be a fundamental strategic error. Whether the Ayatollah regime collapses or not - the truth is that Israel is only moving from containment to attrition. From containing terrorist threats directed against us to expanding our war of attrition with our enemy.

Before October 7th, we believed that our military power was sufficient to manage the conflict with the Palestinians and continue the occupation forever. But the painful and terrible results of the terrorist attack taught us that we do not have enough soldiers to simultaneously defend all our borders.

The Jewish people in the Land of Israel will always be a regional minority in the heart of the Arab and Muslim world. The only thing that can change is the nature of our relationship with our neighbors. As long as our relations with the peoples of the region continue to be hostile - we will be forced to overstretch the IDF's forces beyond their capacity. Only by pursuing positive partnerships with the peoples of the region can we reduce the threats against us and secure our future.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog meets with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. January 30, 2022. Photo: Amos Ben Gershom, GPO.

Operational Limits

Since October 7th, our fronts have expanded significantly. Now they include distant circles such as Iran and Yemen, as well as close circles in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, expansion of forces in the Jordan Valley, and the need to calm the West Bank. This is why the IDF intends to expand reserve service to 70 days per year in the near future.

The advantage of terrorist organizations on these fronts lies precisely in their weakness. Not many resources are required to recruit terrorists for Hamas. In contrast, maintaining the IDF is expensive. Therefore, these organizations can always wear down and overwhelm our security system. This is why the military operations we carried out in the Palestinian towns of Jenin and Tulkarm in the West Bank led to disappointing results. Although there was a decrease in the number of Israelis murdered by terrorism in the West Bank in 2025 relative to the previous two years, this still represents an increase compared to the years 2016-2019, where better results were achieved with much less effort.

The conclusion is that we are forced to strain and stretch our power far beyond our capability. The approach of expanding control over territories beyond Israel's borders - whether in a security zone in Syria or expanding settlements in Judea and Samaria - is what endangers our soldiers. Under these conditions, the IDF's international freedom of action narrows, we will not have enough soldiers for all fronts, and new internal disputes will continue to arise - such as debates over Haredi military service or the establishment of outposts in the Gaza Strip. This is the nature of the war of attrition in which we are trapped. It does not matter whether our enemy is affiliated with Iran or other forces.

Long-term Stability

Therefore, it is vital that we think of a new course: on one hand, we must continue to fight terrorism in all its forms, and on the other hand, we must advance Palestinian human rights - which ultimately means working toward a Palestinian state. Only thus can we strengthen the moderate forces in the Middle East. Among Palestinian groups, only the Arabs in Israel who received civil rights avoided from attacking us after October 7th.

That said, the reconciliation process with the Palestinians will inevitably be lengthy and gradual, with no immediate success. Experience has taught us that there are many dangers in establishing a Palestinian state. Therefore, unlike the Oslo Accords, we will have to maintain the IDF's freedom of action in any scenario, and we must also define in advance how we will resolve all core issues.

But the first stage in striving to establish a Palestinian state is not intended to lead to a new Middle East. The real choice facing us is between continued attrition and long-term stability. The goal of the first stage is to stabilize our internal, security, and international situation - even though unfortunately terrorism will continue to strike us in the foreseeable future. All the potential dangers of a Palestinian state already exist today. We have nothing to lose. Therefore, the first stage in the political process is internally Zionist and does not depend on Palestinian partners. We must present an independent political vision of our own.

Then in the second stage, we will discover that the reconciliation process also leads to new results. As we persist in systematic cooperation with the positive forces among the Palestinian people and in the region, we will end the zero-sum game between Jews and Palestinians from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River. This will elevate our regional position and break the cycle of attrition in which we are trapped.

Israeli society is a wonderful, creative, and determined society. We know how to unite and act together. We know how to mobilize our strengths to achieve success. Therefore, to ensure the safety of our children and grandchildren in this land, we must also build a fifth scenario for them. Not only rounds of war or regional extremism - but also distant hope for a better future.

 Donate to us