Four Steps to a Safe Shore

These lines are being written while the vote count is still underway, so any conclusion must be drawn with caution. Yet four facts already stand out: No political bloc reached 61 seats; the right-wing bloc is larger than the opposition bloc; a majority of those who carry the burden of military and reserve service, work and pay taxes backed the opposition bloc; most Israeli citizens do not want Netanyahu as prime minister; and the Arab parties achieved a historic achievement.

But the fight over seats obscures the bigger picture. Three immediate dangers already threaten us:

The economic danger: International sanctions are already knocking on the banks’ doors, and Netanyahu himself has acknowledged that the banking system is vulnerable. A weakened economy means losing Israel’s qualitative edge, and without it no military achievement can be sustained.

The security danger: The IDF is stretched beyond its capacity in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria and Judea and Samaria, without a decisive outcome on any front. Hamas and Hezbollah are rebuilding their strength, the ayatollahs’ regime is still standing, and a radical Sunni axis led by Turkey and Qatar is gaining strength. Meanwhile, Eilat and the eastern border are exposed to another October 7, and Judea and Samaria are on the verge of a third intifada.

The legal danger: The architects of the judicial overhaul continue to deepen the politicization of the judicial system, eroding the rule of law. Admittedly, the Supreme Court was not free of bias before; but bias in the opposite direction is no remedy.

Israel today resembles a passenger who has fallen into stormy waters. In such a situation, there is no point arguing about which direction to swim or which shore is preferable. First, we must get into the lifeboat and stay alive. Only then can we choose how to row toward a safe shore. All other disputes, including the question of Haredi society, are important, but they will not determine whether we survive in the immediate term. First, we must confront the immediate dangers before us.

Lifeboat from the Titanic. Photo: J.W. Barker, 1912. U.S. National Archives, via Wikimedia Commons

Four Steps for the Next Government

The lifeboat is not a slogan. It consists of four practical steps, each responding directly to one of these dangers. The next government, whatever its composition, must implement them immediately upon taking office:

1. Halt construction in E1, between Jerusalem and Ma’ale Adumim, and evacuate all illegal farm outposts in the West Bank. This will lift the threat of sanctions hanging over the banks and free up combat reserves for the fight against terrorism.

2. Reduce the IDF presence in Lebanon and Gaza to narrow security strips, and shift to repeated, proactive raids on Hamas and Hezbollah infrastructure. At the same time, pursue successive rounds of agreements with the region’s constructive forces, such as the Lebanese government and Saudi Arabia.

3. Strengthen the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Gaza in order to weaken Hamas. The PA is deeply problematic, but Hamas is worse. The PA’s continued decline brings closer the “turning the guns” scenario in which members of the Palestinian security forces turn their weapons against Israel.

4. Fill the vacant seats on the Supreme Court with moderate justices, in order to fortify its standing and preserve the situation that existed before the judicial overhaul, until we forge a constitution together.

   
   

The Practical Test

Any government that implements these steps is legitimate: a unity government, a government with the Haredim, and a cooperates with the Arab parties.

It must be acknowledged that the reservations about the Arab parties are justified. The refusal to designate Hamas a terrorist organization and the failure to recognize the right of the Jewish people to a Jewish and democratic state are unacceptable and dangerous. Israel’s security policy must not depend on parties that hold these positions.

But given the predicament we are in, we must act in new ways. Under current conditions, limited cooperation between the Zionist parties and the Arab parties is possible, so long as security policy does not rely on the Arab parties and Israel’s Jewish and democratic identity remains secure. Accordingly, there are two legitimate paths to cooperation. The first is parliamentary cooperation on legislation. The second is a temporary minority government. Such a government would announce, on the very day it is formed, a date for new elections, making clear that it does not seek to hold power on the strength of Arab parties’ votes. It would serve only until the elections: stopping the slide, beginning to change course, and promptly returning the decision to the people.

There is also another side to the coin. Mansour Abbas has taken steps that cannot be ignored. He recognized the fact that Israel is a Jewish and democratic state, and he spoke out against the May 2021 riots and against Hamas propaganda after October 7. Nor, without drawing an equivalence, is the Jewish side blameless: the occupation, the Nakba, discrimination and rising Jewish terrorism in the West Bank are facts. What matters, therefore, is the direction. Abbas’s direction is positive, and a courageous step on his part demands a courageous response on ours.

Election day in Giv’at Shmuel, 2026. Photo: Nitzan Cohen. From Wikipedia.

Above All: The Budget

The far right, which led Israel to its current low point, relies on a network of private nonprofits that receive funding and authority from the state. This, far more than its number of seats in the Knesset, is the true source of its power. A new budget that redirects resources away from these organizations would therefore weaken the far right’s power base. And even if another round of elections is ultimately required, the moderate forces in Israeli society will enter it stronger, and the extremists weaker.

This time, the choice is not between right and left. It is between changing course and drowning.

But this is only the beginning. Once we stop the drowning, we can return to the great questions we have deferred since the founding of the state: a constitution, borders, a new arrangement with Haredi society, and a genuine partnership with Arab citizens. The road there is still long, but if we act now with responsibility and courage, we can secure a safe future for our children in this land.

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